The use of the term Monte Carlo fallacy originates from the most famous example of this phenomenon, which occurred in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913 Īnd of course RNG in computers is not truly random.

This fallacy can arise in many practical situations, but is most strongly associated with gambling, where such mistakes are common among players.

In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e., independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). The optimism bias (also known as unrealistic or comparative optimism) is a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others.įour factors exist that cause a person to be optimistically biased: their desired end state, their cognitive mechanisms, the information they have about themselves versus others, and overall mood. An extremely high or low Luck will affect the character - somehow.

It is a product of resolving conflicts between belief and desire. Information Modifies chances with the virtual dice of the game, Critical Chance, Gambling Perks Better Criticals, Bonus Ranged Damage, More Criticals, Mysterious Stranger, Scrounger, Toughness, Bend the Rules, Break the Rules Traits Jinxed Fate. Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality, or reality.

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